Legfin Multidisciplinary Research Journal

When Bayesian Model Averaging Misleads: Overfitting in Small-N, High-P Political Forecasting

Julia Dias Cavalcanti — Sat, 23 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

We replicate 247 published political-event forecasts using Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and find that out-of-sample accuracy drops below random guessing when N<50 and P>25. Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that hyper-priors optimized for moderate dimensionality over-shrink signal variance, leading to 38 % false-discovery rates. A ridge-type correction restores calibration, offering a diagnostic toolkit for emerging-market forecasters.

Green-Bond Washing and the Yield Penalty: Evidence from Nordic Utilities

Erik Nygaard, Copenhagen — Sat, 23 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Matching 178 green-bond issuances with project-level emissions, we find that 31 % of labeled green projects exceeded baseline carbon intensities. Event-study results show a 15-basis-point yield penalty upon revelation, concentrated among ESG-constrained funds. A reputation-based signaling model explains why high-type issuers still risk soft green-washing.

Audit Analytics and False Positives: The Collapse of Wirecard through the Lens of Audit Logs

Yuki Tanaka — Sat, 23 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

We reconstruct Wirecard’s 2015-2019 audit logs using process-mining techniques and identify 712,000 anomalous journal-entry patterns that were auto-suppressed by threshold filters. Counterfactual tests show that a 0.5 % loosening of anomaly tolerance would have triggered substantive tests detecting the €1.9 bn fraud. The paper proposes dynamic calibration of audit algorithms based on entity-level risk scores.

Family Firm Succession and Psychological Ownership: Why 68 % of Thai Second-Generation Transfers Fail

Kritsana Chaiwong, Chulalongkorn — Sat, 23 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

A longitudinal survey of 312 Thai SMEs reveals that second-generation successors who score high on inherited psychological ownership but low on earned psychological ownership experience 2.3× higher divestiture rates. Narrative analysis attributes failure to symbolic over-attachment stifling strategic renewal. A staged authority-transfer protocol is proposed.

Price Ceilings and Queuing Externalities: Evidence from Egypt’s 2022 Cooking-Oil Crisis

Katie R. Beaupre — Sat, 23 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

Difference-in-differences estimates using high-frequency supermarket scanner data show that price ceilings increased queuing time by 9.4 minutes per purchase, disproportionately affecting female shoppers. Structural modeling suggests welfare losses equivalent to 0.7 % of GDP, highlighting the regressive impact of ostensibly pro-poor policies.

Using Diversification to Construct an Optimal Investment Portfolio for Companies Listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange

Sat, 23 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

This study aims to identify the use of diversification and its impact on constructing the optimal investment portfolio in a sample of companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange. Portfolio indicators and the optimal portfolio were analyzed, and a structural model of the relationships was constructed. This was done using modern methods for measuring returns and risks and employing quantitative models in portfolio construction. The study relied on financial data extracted from financial market reports. The rate of return, risk, standard deviation, and correlation coefficient between stocks were calculated to determine the optimal combination. The study reached conclusions, most notably the need to encourage investors to adopt scientific methods in building investment portfolios, in addition to enhancing transparency and financial disclosure for listed companies, which would increase the efficiency of the financial market.

Agile Leadership and Organizational Adaptability in Post-Crisis Economies

Sophia Li, School of Business Administration, — Sat, 23 Aug 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The turbulence of the global economy following crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped organizational priorities. This study investigates how agile leadership contributes to organizational adaptability in the face of rapidly shifting environments. Using a mixed-methods approach, the research draws on interviews with 35 mid- to senior-level managers across five sectors in China, coupled with a survey of 400 employees from both private and state-owned enterprises. The findings suggest that agile leadership—characterized by responsiveness, collaborative decision-making, and decentralized authority—significantly enhances an organization's capacity to adapt strategies, workforce structures, and technological deployment. Furthermore, organizations led by agile leaders demonstrated higher levels of employee engagement, innovation, and customer retention post-crisis. The study introduces a conceptual model linking agile leadership traits with core organizational adaptability mechanisms, including knowledge sharing and digital transformation. Policy implications stress the need for leadership development programs focusing on agility and resilience. The paper concludes with recommendations for executive training and organizational policy restructuring. This research contributes to the growing literature on adaptive management and offers practical insights for businesses navigating volatile global markets.